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Économie : Croissance mondiale, le FMI abaisse encore ses prévisions

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Selon le Fonds Monétaire International (FMI), la croissance mondiale ne devrait pas dépasser 3 % en 2019, soit son rythme le plus faible depuis la crise financière de 2009.

Dans ses perspectives économiques d’automne, publiées mardi 15 octobre, le Fonds Monétaire International (FMI) revoit une nouvelle fois à la baisse ses prévisions de croissance pour 2019, sur fonds de tensions commerciales et de ralentissement de l’économie chinoise. L’institution espère une accélération en 2020, tout en restant prudente, étant donné le climat d’incertitude qui pèse sur la conjoncture mondiale.

La croissance mondiale ne devrait pas dépasser 3 % en 2019. Soit son rythme le plus faible depuis la crise financière de 2009 (contre 3,6 % en 2018). C’est 0,3 point de moins que les dernières prévisions de l’institution en avril.

« Après un ralentissement prononcé sur les trois derniers trimestres de l’année 2018, la croissance des pays avancés s’est stabilisée à un rythme faible durant le premier semestre 2019 », observe le FMI, pointant les tensions commerciales qui ont provoqué une hausse des tarifs douaniers, entamé la confiance des entreprises et renforcé le climat d’incertitudes.

Selon les calculs du FMI, ces tensions commerciales devraient coûter 0,8 point de produit intérieur brut à la croissance mondiale en 2020. Et encore, leurs effets ont été amortis par une politique monétaire accommodante aux États-Unis et dans de nombreux autres pays avancés et émergents.

« En l’absence de ce stimulus monétaire, la croissance mondiale aurait été plus faible de 0,5 point du PIB en 2019 et 2020 », affirme Gita Gopinath, la Chef économiste du FMI.

L’institution sise à Washington cite aussi d’autres raisons plus structurelles pour expliquer le ralentissement de la croissance, à savoir la faible hausse de la productivité et la démographie vieillissante dans les économies avancées.

Pour 2020, le FMI anticipe une légère accélération de la croissance mondiale (3,4 %) soutenue par les pays émergents, tandis que, dans le même temps, l’activité devrait être moins dynamique dans un groupe de pays comprenant le Japon, les États-Unis, l’Europe et la Chine, soit la moitié du PIB mondial. Le FMI abaisse ainsi sa prévision de croissance en zone euro pour 2020 à 1,4 %.

 

 

 

 

 

Le Sage

Source: Le Monde.fr

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